Canelo vs GGG: A trilogy in the making?

It’s official. The rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will take place May 5th at a location to be determined, on HBO pay-per-view. For the past few weeks, we’ve constantly heard from Golden Boy’s representatives that the fight was “almost signed.” Fans and media members were beginning to wonder why this deal was taking so long to get finalized. Now, everything is set.

Where will Canelo vs GGG take place?

As of now, it appears that the venue will be chosen sometime in February. So far, according to reports, Madison Square Garden in New York has put up a higher offer to host the fight, than the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. But to be quite honest, it would be a complete shock if the fight ended up anywhere else but Las Vegas. Big pay-per-view fights normally land in Vegas. It’s where most of the revenue comes from.

The first fight got some heavy scrutiny. Thanks to one Adelaide Byrd, who scored the fight 118-110 for Canelo. Neither fighter deserved to win more than 8 rounds, especially Canelo. Two of the other judges who scored it 114-114 and 115-113 for Golovkin, seemed to be more at par with what went on in the fight. It’s due to the fact that the first fight ended in a draw, that makes me believe that we will see a trilogy, especially if the second fight is just as competitive.

The first fight of many?

Marketability between two fighters certainly comes into play when talking about multiple fights. The first fight did about 1.3 million pay-per-view buys on HBO’s broadcast. The gate itself at the T-Mobile arena did around 27 million, just third behind Mayweather-Pacquiao and Mayweather-McGregor fights.

Floyd Mayweather, who we believe that is officially retired at this point. Anthony Joshua is making all of his money in the United Kingdom, and now it seems that Canelo Alvarez is currently the cash cow in America. However, just because he’s the United States biggest money grabber, doesn’t necessarily mean that he can pick any opponent he wants to have huge numbers.

Canelo’s last two fights in 2017 awarded him with two separate big-time pay-per-view successful cards. In May, Canelo did a little over a million buys when he fought Julio Caesar Chavez Jr at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Canelo needs legitimate opponents to keep pay-per-view numbers up

No other fighter in the United States (besides Floyd Mayweather) can push more than a million buys. In fact, I find it hard to believe that Manny Pacquiao, who’s still not retired, can reach a million buys anymore. His last fight did 4.4 million views on ESPN when he fought Jeff Horn in Brisbane, Australia.

But despite breaking over a million twice in pay-per-view buys in 2017, it doesn’t mean Canelo can just fight anyone and get the same result. In September of 2016, Canelo fought Liam Smith in Arlington, Texas. The fight drew 51,000 in AT&T stadium. But the fight merely did between 250-300 thousand pay-per-view buys.

Canelo needs quality and legitimate opponents to keep those pay-per-view numbers up. Now that he’s in the middleweight division, there are a variety of quality opponents to face. But fighting guys like Daniel Jacobs, BJ Saunders, Demetrius Andrade etc, won’t be giving him the same amount of attention from casual fans to tune in like they do with Gennady Golovkin.

Let’s face it, any chance Golden Boy gets to make money, they’ll do it

Canelo Álvarez sums up about 80-90 percent of Golden Boy’s revenue. The rest of their stable consists of solid world champions, and a lot of prospects that they have to develop. Which makes the point that any chance Golden Boy can make the most amount of money on Canelo, they’ll certainly do it.

There isn’t a rematch clause attached to this rematch that was finalized by Golden Boy Promotions, and Tom Loeffler. But of course, another close fight between both fighters will almost automatically make for another fight. Money talks in sports, especially for fighters and promoters. I’m expecting another close fight, and don’t see a scenario which either fighter gets knocked out. But this is boxing, and anything can happen.

Golovkin and Canelo can go down as the next great trilogy in the sport, which will most likely enhance their legacy. Fights like Barrera-Morales. Pacquiao-Marquez and other trilogies make for more fans to tune in.

With the way these two fights are marketed, and how close their first fight was, barring any type of amazing result, a trilogy seems pretty much inevitable.

You can read more posts from this author at Ringside Box Talk.

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